Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute

Recent controversy around seismic exploration off the coast of South Africa leads us to revisit an earlier recommendation on long-dated USD bond of one of the oil majors. The optics of the excursion are not great, and we reiterate the underweight recommendation. 

Update: Added information about the funding of Amazon Warrior.

(1 Dec/ 30 Nov 2021)

We review the small - if any- moves in credit spreads during the week of a barrage of news flow with regards to Big Oil companies such as Exxon, Shell, Chevron and Total. The lack of action in credit is juxtaposed versus moves in equities. Historically, equity momentum has been a strong predictor of credit spreads.

(1 June 2021)

Shell long-end bonds have compressed vis-a-vis higher spread peers and decompressed from lower beta. This should be interesting for relative transition plays in the oil sector.

(18 Feb 2022)

 In this note, we use existing datasets to provide a relative ranking of Oil & Gas issuers based on their alignment with climate targets. We combine this with market pricing to analyse how much of their current and future environmental performance drives their funding spreads. 

(06 Mar 2023)

MSCI have recently excluded Arctic oil & gas producers from a range of 'ESG screened' indexes.

This note analyses the exclusions and their possible impact. It considers the universe of potentially affected issuers and highlights the most relevant for fixed income investors – the significant producers in the region with plans for further development.

(26 Apr 2023)