Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute
Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute

“To monitor, advocate for and influence the impact of fixed income markets in the age of human induced climate change.”

Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute - AFII

Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute - AFIIAnthropocene Fixed Income Institute - AFIIAnthropocene Fixed Income Institute - AFII

“To monitor, advocate for and influence the impact of fixed income markets in the age of human induced climate change.”

Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute - AFII

Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute - AFIIAnthropocene Fixed Income Institute - AFIIAnthropocene Fixed Income Institute - AFII
  • AFII Home
  • AFII Research
  • AFII Advocacy
  • AFII Market thinking
  • AFII In the media
  • About AFII
  • Disclaimer and privacy

Advocacy

Market thinking and outreach

Market thinking and outreach

 Bond markets are generating fresh capital for coal, gas and oil development. We seek to put an end to the worst transgressions, but also push for new, innovative green investment solutions. 

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Market thinking and outreach

Market thinking and outreach

Market thinking and outreach

AFII analyses market events and trends in a fixed income climate context, and further seeks to raise awareness of the fixed income market's climate impact to outside observers.

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Research

Market thinking and outreach

Research

 Fixed income markets are technically complex with poor data and often lacking good models linking climate impact and trading. AFII conducts academic style research into the area. 

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Recent work

Pinned: AFII Research Synthesis

Zero new coal mine financing? EQT infrastructure investors and Carmichael

Zero new coal mine financing? EQT infrastructure investors and Carmichael

 This document categorizes and hyperlinks AFII reserach output for an easy-to-read overview. Latest update 26 Feb 2021. 

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Zero new coal mine financing? EQT infrastructure investors and Carmichael

Zero new coal mine financing? EQT infrastructure investors and Carmichael

Zero new coal mine financing? EQT infrastructure investors and Carmichael

Our analysis indicates that investors in certain EQT infrastructure fund(s) will have new coal mine construction exposure.  

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EQT and Adani Enterprises: Some ESG questions

Zero new coal mine financing? EQT infrastructure investors and Carmichael

Brookfield: Coal and ESG mix like oil and water

EQT building data-centers with one of the world's biggest coal players: all good? 

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Brookfield: Coal and ESG mix like oil and water

Green reputation hijacking: How multilateral green credit lines are used for Carmichael purposes

Brookfield: Coal and ESG mix like oil and water

Brookfield looks set to launch a multi-billion dollar climate fund. And a coal expansion making Dalrymple Bay into the world's biggest coal export facility. If there were a word for such strategies. 

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Coal, coup, CDP and credit: Adani Ports update

Green reputation hijacking: How multilateral green credit lines are used for Carmichael purposes

Green reputation hijacking: How multilateral green credit lines are used for Carmichael purposes

We review intensified coal mine engagements, Myanmar coup sanctions, potentially misleading carbon disclosure, and resistance to syndicate new bonds as factors to take into consideration for ADSEZ bond investors. 

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Green reputation hijacking: How multilateral green credit lines are used for Carmichael purposes

Green reputation hijacking: How multilateral green credit lines are used for Carmichael purposes

Green reputation hijacking: How multilateral green credit lines are used for Carmichael purposes

State Bank of India is using green credentials from multilaterals like KfW, World Bank and EIB to detract from the Carmichael mega-loan. Put a stop to it.

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WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

 We discuss the nature of short selling: its dangers, its benefits, after a month of extremely interesting developments in the space. 

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Low carbon credit performance 2015-2020

WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

  Low carbon has produced stable excess returns versus traditional credit - we provide an out-of-sample, apples-for-apples examination using S&P indices based on the ECOBAR allocation model. 

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Biden and the oil sand vanguard: Inaugural credit action

Biden and the oil sand vanguard: Inaugural credit action

Biden and the oil sand vanguard: Inaugural credit action

Biden's early decision to cut the Keystone XL pipeline project may have implications for Vanguard's and NBIM's large bond positions in the world's top oil sand producer, Province of Alberta.

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The Reformed SSA Trader: New Year's Exclusions

Biden and the oil sand vanguard: Inaugural credit action

Biden and the oil sand vanguard: Inaugural credit action

With the announcement of the financing of the Vung An II coal plant, the AFII initiates its SSA exclusion list by putting JBIC and KEXIM on it, together with a few of AFII's earlier designated SSA climate destroyers. And we explain what SSA stands for/is.

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Having State Bank Carmichael coal exposure?

Biden and the oil sand vanguard: Inaugural credit action

Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

AFII makes the case for SBI refinaning of the bank's significant USD near term maturities to be conditional on no Carmichael loan, and review parallel lending practices in order to win green bond mandates, with specific focus to SBI's 2018 green bond syndicate by HSBC among others.

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Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

The biggest USD bond funder of potential Carmichael coal lender State Bank of India has a dominant private equity owner,  top-three firm Apollo Management. What does this mean for (climate concerned) end investors in Apollo funds, and/or the PE manager's engagement opportunity here? 

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So long. Farewell. xAuf Wiedersehnx. Adieu.

Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

How green bond markets are (not) supposed to work

The German coal decommissioning auction shuts 4.8GW of hard coal power, and among them the Vattenfall Moorburg 1.6GW white elephant project. Auction results and some reflections on the history of it. 

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How green bond markets are (not) supposed to work

Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

How green bond markets are (not) supposed to work

A green bond market where issuers can directly finance what has been called “the world’s most insane energy project” and still claim credit for refinancing a dozen of windmills deserves to be questioned. Could we avoid it? We look into the State Bank of India potential Carmichael coal loan.

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SBI (potential) Carmichael loan: Key financing transaction parties

Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

SBI (potential) Carmichael loan: Key financing transaction parties

Given a potential Carmichael loan from SBI, we review who are the main banking transaction parties having exposure to such a -in our opinion- greenwash. MUFG and HSBC come out on top.

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State Bank of India + Coal Mega-Mine? Not so fast please

Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

SBI (potential) Carmichael loan: Key financing transaction parties

Media reports indicate that SBI is looking to provide USD650mn of fresh funding to Adani Enterprises and the Carmichael coal mine build. We think traditional bond investors, green bond investors and development banks should consider if the SBI's potential actions are in line with their climate targets.

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Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

We suggest an alternative way to get almost identical risk-return exposure but without lining the pockets of Aramco shareholder(s).

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Final port of coal? The Brookfield Dalrymple IPO

Final port of coal? The Brookfield Dalrymple IPO

Final port of coal? The Brookfield Dalrymple IPO

 The Dalrymple coal terminal is one of the world's biggest pieces of coal infrastructure and is being put up for sale by Canadian asset manager Brookfield. There is a lot to comment on as the process enters the retail marketing stage.  

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The bond market and the climate transition

Final port of coal? The Brookfield Dalrymple IPO

Final port of coal? The Brookfield Dalrymple IPO

In this joint piece with SSFC/Stockholm School of Economics, we argue for the relevance for and discuss the functionality of bond markets for the climate transition. Non-technical piece.  

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The ECB and Alberta's oil production tax holiday

Final port of coal? The Brookfield Dalrymple IPO

The ECB and Alberta's oil production tax holiday

The ECB is facilitating cheap funding access for the world's premiere tar sand producer, Canadian province of Alberta,  who is now using borrowed capital to subsidize its industry. Makes sense? AFII opines that is does not.

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Reef Credits: An Indulgence

Low carbon credit performance: 2020 Q3 update

The ECB and Alberta's oil production tax holiday

The recent AUD1mn contribution on behalf of HSBC and the Queensland government to Great Barrier Reef conservation is not in proportion to QLD's role as a top global player in coal. We call it.

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An ECB Rapid Decarbonisation Plan

Low carbon credit performance: 2020 Q3 update

Low carbon credit performance: 2020 Q3 update

Just 30 bond issuers derived by the proposed HLE2G framework and who sit in the ECB's eligible market asset list have a combined carbon footprint of 3.5 gigatonnes CO2. Decarbonisation of the ECB's exposures could be quick and straightforward (practically speaking).

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Low carbon credit performance: 2020 Q3 update

Low carbon credit performance: 2020 Q3 update

Low carbon credit performance: 2020 Q3 update

Low carbon credit robustly outperform a traditional portfolio in an apples-for-apples comparison using the ECOBAR  framework and S&P Indices, out-of-sample.

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Dalrymple of Queensland and the Mighty Greenwash

Dalrymple of Queensland and the Mighty Greenwash

Dalrymple of Queensland and the Mighty Greenwash

World's third largest coal port is being sold by Canadian real asset house Brookfield to potentially the Government of Queensland. Not a good idea, the AFII opines. At least shut the termal part of it.

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Gobal investors and the Carmichael mega-mine

Dalrymple of Queensland and the Mighty Greenwash

Dalrymple of Queensland and the Mighty Greenwash

Some of the world's top investor, such as Allianz and Norge's Bank Investment Management, have large exposures to Adani Ports. We present indication that that funding is reducing cost-of-capital for the Carmichael coal mega-mine. Investments should be reviewed.

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ESG in CDS indices

Dalrymple of Queensland and the Mighty Greenwash

ESG in CDS indices

How should ESG tilted CDS indices be used? We draw some conclusions from our own trading.

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Hard coal auction

Green Bond Risk Premiums: A Twin-Bond ULFP Approach

ESG in CDS indices

Vattenfall, Fortum and Engie (all government owned/controlled) are key players in the 1 Sep 2020 German coal decommissioning auction. We suggest that neither company will be making proftis in German thermal coal and thus should offer to shut capacity at €0 compensation.

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Top coal, top ESG?

Green Bond Risk Premiums: A Twin-Bond ULFP Approach

Green Bond Risk Premiums: A Twin-Bond ULFP Approach

We review the global top decile ESG ranking of Adani Power, a 99.7% coal based electricity company as well as recent investor losses in the company's stockk after a recent delisting announcement.

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Green Bond Risk Premiums: A Twin-Bond ULFP Approach

Green Bond Risk Premiums: A Twin-Bond ULFP Approach

Green Bond Risk Premiums: A Twin-Bond ULFP Approach

In this academic paper, we device two different ways to measure the (risk) premium between green and traditional bonds: thorugh cointegration or through realised volatility analysis.

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About AFII

AFII is a non-profit organization taking a bond market practitioner perspective for real climate impact. We like the buzz of a succesful trade and the P&L it brings with it.  We are extremely concerned about climate change, and distrust marketing waffle around "sustainable finance". 

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  • AFII Home
  • AFII Research
  • AFII Advocacy
  • AFII Market thinking
  • AFII In the media
  • About AFII
  • Disclaimer and privacy

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