This year the UK government publicly affirmed that the loss of critical ecosystems constitutes a direct threat to the country’s national security. The core message is captured in the opening conclusion of a key report, offered with ‘High Analytical Confidence’: “Global ecosystem degradation and collapse threaten UK national security and prosperity.”[1]
This should make safeguarding these same ecosystems a public policy priority. One financing mechanism for protecting a particularly vital ecosystem — the Amazon rainforest — is the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF), which was reportedly designed in the City of London.[2]
It is rare to see such a clear alignment of national priorities and financial ingenuity, which makes it all the more puzzling that the government has yet to commit to the TFFF. The Chairs of the Foreign Affairs Committee and Environmental Audit Committee are themselves nonplussed and recently brought the lack of a UK contribution to the fund to the attention of Chancellor Reeves.[3]
The above chart highlights “critical regions for UK national security”[4]. Consider particularly the first three: the Amazon, the Congo Basin, and Southeast Asia. Then consider the eligible areas for the TFFF (below), which are shown in green. There is a clear overlap, meaning the TFFF supports the UK’s top three ecosystem-related security concerns. Viewed together, it is hard to read these graphics as anything other than evidence that a successful TFFF would help to address some of the UK’s national security risks.
AFII has covered the TFFF extensively (1, 2, 3). Since its launch at COP30, the facility has secured USD6.7 billion in sponsor capital, a substantial sum but still well below the original $25 billion target. In our view, if fully capitalised, the TFFF could play a major role in slowing deforestation and biodiversity loss, and in doing so materially contribute to addressing the very risks highlighted in the UK’s national security assessment.
Key contributors to the TFFF so far include Norway, Germany, Brazil, and Indonesia. In these cases. participation appears to reflect a practical appreciation of the importance of tropical forests, both for climate stability and biodiversity.
The UK government’s reluctance to contribute is, on the face of it, driven by budgetary concerns. However, because of the benefits to national security that would ensue, a TFFF contribution should arguably be treated as an asset rather than a donation. Ministers have said they will keep the matter under review (4).
To put a potential expenditure on the TFFF into perspective: the UK defence budget is expected to increase to GBP73.5 billion in the coming years, equivalent to around USD100 billion.[5] One could argue that a TFFF contribution would not be a direct cost to the Treasury, but a type of catalytic investment that supports the county’s national defence. There are also commercial and reputational factors to consider, as a substantial share of the TFFF’s capital would be managed out of the City of London.
The UK’s long-term asset owners could play a pivotal role in urging government participation in the TFFF[6]. As major creditors to the UK, their collective voices carry unique weight, and they could use these to signal that ecosystem risks threaten the country’s long-term fiscal stability. This in turn could prompt ministers to view TFFF support not as an expenditure, but as prudent risk management.
In conclusion, the UK’s new national security assessment makes a compelling case for an immediate review of its position on TFFF commitments. In the world of finance, few opportunities align so neatly with the proverb “help others to help yourself” — but here it should be obvious that protecting tropical forests through the TFFF would safeguard ecosystems vital to the UK’s own security and prosperity.
[1] “National security assessment on global ecosystems”, UK Government, 2 Feb 2026.
[2] “Brazil gathers countries in London to discuss the design of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility (TFFF)”, TFFF, 14 Mar 2025.
[3] Letter to Rt Hon Rachel Reeves MP, UK Parliament, 29 Jan 2026.
[4] Ecosystem regions key: 1. Amazon rainforest 2. Congo Basin 3. Coral reefs/Mangroves SE Asia 4. Himalayas 5. Boreal forests (Russia) 6. Boreal forests (Canada)
[5] “UK defence spending”, Research Briefing, 10 Oct 2025.
[6] “Finding your voice: tools for better bondholder engagement on climate and nature risk,” AFII, 05 December 2025.
