International Monetary Market (IMM) dates — when many financial contracts are settled — are a good time to for an investor to take stock of how their one’s bank counterparties are behaving. The March and September dates are of especial particular importance for credit investors as they mark when CDS indices and single-name contracts roll.
With Using ‘The Box’ — our exclusive tool for measuring monitoring the fees that banks generate from green or fossil debt syndication net green/fossil fees of global banks — AFII readersinvestors can get a handle on their dealers’ debt capital market (DCM) activities ahead of these roll dates.
The Q3- 2025 edition of ‘The Box’ is particularly interesting, as it shows how policy shifts are changing dealmaking dynamics, and not in the way you might expect.
The big takeaway is that this quarter, the largest banks in aggregate reported more fees from green deals than fossil fuel deals. In other words, the banks that 'bet' on the low-carbon transition netted more fees (USD613mn) from it than the banks that bet against it (USD544mn).
However, this aggregate number masks some regional differences. US banks have generally loaded up on more fossil fuel deals, with the large ones on average increasing volumes by +25% compared to other global banks - even the fossil fan Canadian lenders! JP Morgan has led the way among its peers, dropping to the second-to-last place in our league table (meaning it is financing many more fossil deals than green ones). In contrast, Bank of America is climbing the rankings, meaning it is underwriting more transition-focused deals.
How are banks’ equity performances tracking their green/fossil dealmaking, you ask? The total returns of Credit Agricole (#1 in the rankings) and HSBC (#4) are up 45-60% since mid-November last year, whereas JP Morgan (#16) and Wells Fargo (#17) are up 27% and 11%, respectively. The correlation between ‘The Box’ rankings and equity returns is certainly compelling.
We are starting to see a backlash-to-the-backlash when it comes to ESG. Some European institutions are pulling mandates from US asset managers that have amended their climate policies following the Trump administration’s actions. Perhaps this trend will be reflected in banking relationships, too?
This data will certainly be interesting to monitor going forward.
