Rio Tinto: a just transition case study

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This paper examines the social risks associated with moving to renewable technologies, not just away from fossil fuels. Using Rio Tinto (ticker RIOLN) as a case study, we explore how failure to secure a social licence to operate (SLO) can have financial implications for bondholders.

Rio Tinto's Jadar lithium mine in Serbia — estimated to meet ~90% of EU lithium demand — was mothballed in November 2025 after nationwide protests over its environmental and social impact. As well as facing sunk costs, the project was expected to offer significant financial benefits to Rio Tinto over its expected 40-year lifespan. A prior SLO failure at the Juukan Gorge in Australia, which caused board-level resignations and shareholder revolt, may have compounded its difficulties in Serbia.

Bond spreads widened after both Jadar suspensions but in line with the broader market. The market may have disregarded the mine suspension as lithium isn't yet a significant driver of returns for Rio Tinto. As the transition accelerates and the production of lithium becomes more financially material for the company, any failure to obtain an SLO that jeopardises production will be relevant for bondholders.