Total eclipse of the 2050 net zero deadline

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Oil & gas companies have been extending the maturity of their senior debt, in particular TotalEnergies, which issued $5.25bn of bonds in 2024 with maturities longer than the net zero target date.

TotalEnergies has nearly tripled the average maturity of its debt since 2015, and we analyse the performance and the holders of this debt.

There is some evidence of reduced demand for these long bonds, and a slight underperformance of the bonds issued in April. However, in general, transition risk remains unpriced in the curve.

Most notably, a number of signatories of the Net Zero Asset Managers Initiative are owners of these long-dated bonds.