Abbott Point bonds go 10/90: Coal refi bellwether?

1 minute read

The fact that Abbott Point 2022 bonds are trading at a distressed level 10 months before maturity illustrates the difficulties in coal refinancing. Related parties such as ADSEZ should monitor the situation.

The bonds recently entered 10/90 territory: 10 months remaining until maturity and trading at 90 cents on the dollar. In yield terms, this is equivalent to a yield of around 18%, which in turn indicates significant distress.

The natural flow of money market funds mopping up <1yr paper as traditional indexed funds exit (as they instead deal mostly with >1yr paper) should now be over, if it was there at all. Abbott Point was downgraded to junk last year and the MMF bid may not have crystallised due to rating constraints, which could explain the poor price dynamics since December.

Having said this, we believe bonds are still pricing in (on the upside) hope of a rescuer arriving in time to refinance the bond at par. In our view, likely counterparties to do so if a bond market or bank loan refinancing is not possible would be Adani Enterprises or Adani Ports.