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Net green/fossil bond syndication league table - Mar23

Net green/fossil bond syndication league table - Mar23

Net green/fossil bond syndication league table - Mar23

The AFII net green/fossil fee league table updates proxy indicators on relative tilting of bank counterparties' climate alignment.

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The reformed SSA trader: A new-found dog

Net green/fossil bond syndication league table - Mar23

Net green/fossil bond syndication league table - Mar23

Newfoundland and Labrador is opening up for raising capital in EUR SSA market, while facilitating some of the most substantial ultra-deepwater wildcat oil and gas operations globally.

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Oil & Gas: Climate performance and the cost of capital

Net green/fossil bond syndication league table - Mar23

SLB triggers: What next if Nobian or PPC miss their targets?

 A relative ranking of Oil & Gas issuers based on their alignment with climate targets combined with market pricing to analyse how environmental performance drives their funding spreads.  

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SLB triggers: What next if Nobian or PPC miss their targets?

SLB triggers: What next if Nobian or PPC miss their targets?

SLB triggers: What next if Nobian or PPC miss their targets?

 The market is waiting for confirmation that two index-eligible SLBs will miss their Dec 2022 targets. 

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BHP: Think big with an SLB

SLB triggers: What next if Nobian or PPC miss their targets?

Adani Green/Ports and Carmichael funding exposures

 Mining giant BHP is looking to tap the USD bond market today for the first time in nearly ten years.

We propose an SLB structure which could help achieve coal decommissioning objectives.

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Adani Green/Ports and Carmichael funding exposures

SLB triggers: What next if Nobian or PPC miss their targets?

Adani Green/Ports and Carmichael funding exposures

The Adani Ports and Green capital stacks are being used to provide credit for the Carmichael mine. Investors should evaluate their exposure.  

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Swedish RE Bond Blowup: not a green issue

ESG Bond ETFs: Passive aggressive investing?

Swedish RE Bond Blowup: not a green issue

Poor performance of Swedish real-estate bonds may have green implications in the domestic market but likely not internationally.

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Wind-down (of CSPP) is coming

ESG Bond ETFs: Passive aggressive investing?

Swedish RE Bond Blowup: not a green issue

Inflation is driving reduction of CB support mechanism and it might be tilted green: ECB supported non-Eurozone heavy fossil fuel issuers like Shell, BP, Glencore and Schlumberger bonds look vulnerable.

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ESG Bond ETFs: Passive aggressive investing?

ESG Bond ETFs: Passive aggressive investing?

ESG Bond ETFs: Passive aggressive investing?

Russia's #1 thermal coal miner landed bonds in an ESG bond ETF  explicitly excluding thermal coal: we analyze the market "process" enabling this.

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Abbott Point bonds go 10/90: Coal refi bellwether?

New EIG/Aramco bonds in ESG indices: EOM flow risks

New EIG/Aramco bonds in ESG indices: EOM flow risks

ABAABB -22s trading at 90 cents with 10 months till maturity. Distressed financing notes.

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New EIG/Aramco bonds in ESG indices: EOM flow risks

New EIG/Aramco bonds in ESG indices: EOM flow risks

New EIG/Aramco bonds in ESG indices: EOM flow risks

EIGPRL bonds are likely to fall out of the ESG indices where they should not have landed in the first place.

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Sri Lanka: restructuring with biodiversity-links?

New EIG/Aramco bonds in ESG indices: EOM flow risks

Oil, gas and bond pipelines: the case of Aramco/EIG/BLK

A potential restructuring should be biodiversity linked.

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Oil, gas and bond pipelines: the case of Aramco/EIG/BLK

Oil, gas and bond pipelines: the case of Aramco/EIG/BLK

Oil, gas and bond pipelines: the case of Aramco/EIG/BLK

New EIGPRL bonds were not met with great appetite.

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Low carbon credit performance in a 400% oil rally

Oil, gas and bond pipelines: the case of Aramco/EIG/BLK

Low carbon credit performance in a 400% oil rally

ECOBAR performance in the context of high oil prices.

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Notable fixed income fossil funding deals 2021

Oil, gas and bond pipelines: the case of Aramco/EIG/BLK

Low carbon credit performance in a 400% oil rally

A selection of the most notable, well shocking, deals of 2021.

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Operation Private Markets: A Bridge CO2 Far

Glencore news: implications for iTraxx investors

Shell-shocked: a whale trade in corporate bonds

Oil and gas pipeline lease-lease-back transactions targetting a +4C scenario. We look at the financing structures.

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Shell-shocked: a whale trade in corporate bonds

Glencore news: implications for iTraxx investors

Shell-shocked: a whale trade in corporate bonds

 Seismic O&G exploration is making some noise in South Africa - we look at how this could affect long-dated USD bonds. 

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Glencore news: implications for iTraxx investors

Glencore news: implications for iTraxx investors

Glencore news: implications for iTraxx investors

Glencore's met(hane)morphosis: how to handle credit exposure.

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Coal funding premia: Port of Newcastle USD deal

Coal funding premia: Port of Newcastle USD deal

Glencore news: implications for iTraxx investors

New PON 10y USD priced 2% above ratings implied fair value.

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Market opportunity: Indian (green) bond issuance in EUR

Market opportunity: Indian (green) bond issuance in EUR

Market opportunity: Indian (green) bond issuance in EUR

Why are (barely) no Indian bonds issued in EUR?

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Trading climate opportunities in the Chinese bond market

Market opportunity: Indian (green) bond issuance in EUR

Market opportunity: Indian (green) bond issuance in EUR

A review of on-shore and off-shore opportunities in China's bond market.

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Net green/fossil bond syndication league tables

Market opportunity: Indian (green) bond issuance in EUR

Net green/fossil bond syndication league tables

A review of league tables in bond syndication netting green and fossil bond issuances.

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The Box

"Passive" money and new thermal coal mine builds

Net green/fossil bond syndication league tables

 Drive counterparty lists for climate impact. 

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Mexiconvexity: Credit, IMF, Pemex

"Passive" money and new thermal coal mine builds

"Passive" money and new thermal coal mine builds

 Will recent IMF covid funding be used to bail out Pemex? DV01 neutral flatteners, long convexity, look relatively attractive.  

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"Passive" money and new thermal coal mine builds

"Passive" money and new thermal coal mine builds

"Passive" money and new thermal coal mine builds

 An specific analysis in terms of what types of investors feed capital into controversial projects

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Back to the grind: Low carbon credit performance

Back to the grind: Low carbon credit performance

Back to the grind: Low carbon credit performance

  Low carbon credit relative returns have recovered after an extensive oil price rally between 2020Q2 and 2021Q1.  

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Woodside Petroleum vs iTraxx Australia

Back to the grind: Low carbon credit performance

Back to the grind: Low carbon credit performance

 WLPAU is taking over BHP's assets which is strengthening the trend  of equity underperformance vs ASX200. WLPAU credit is unch'd: we  suggest a relval trade on CDS. 

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Exxon cap structure arbitrage/impact trade idea

Back to the grind: Low carbon credit performance

Total/Equinor climate risk CDS trade: IEA update

 An specific analysis in terms of what types of investors feed capital into controversial projects

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Total/Equinor climate risk CDS trade: IEA update

T Credit investors, rating agencies and climate: Exhibit 1

Total/Equinor climate risk CDS trade: IEA update

 Update on a recent, well-performing CDS relval trade, which should  be further supported by the IEA's recents statements on the 'future' of  oil and gas exploration s

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T Credit investors, rating agencies and climate: Exhibit 1

T Credit investors, rating agencies and climate: Exhibit 1

T Credit investors, rating agencies and climate: Exhibit 1

   When credit investors refuse to refinance coal, credit ratings  drop and bond yields => cost-of-capital increases.  

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Petrochemicals: Major credits, carbon risks, green bonds

Petrochemicals: Major credits, carbon risks, green bonds

Petrochemicals: Major credits, carbon risks, green bonds

 

 Petrochemical companies play an important role in benchmark credit as well as in terms of climate mitigation. We analyse general bond exposures as well as a recent BASF green bond coming out of the sector. 

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The oil rally and low carbon credit performance

Petrochemicals: Major credits, carbon risks, green bonds

Petrochemicals: Major credits, carbon risks, green bonds

 

Even during a oil price rally, low carbon out-performance has still been positive although the relative performance has been lower than before.

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Short Total. Long Equinor (and/or iTraxx ESG)

Petrochemicals: Major credits, carbon risks, green bonds

Pinned: The bond market and the climate transition

  We believe a market neutral relative value  trade combining a  credit short on French oil major Total (versus a long  on Norwegian oil  major Equinor could be attractive.  .

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Pinned: The bond market and the climate transition

WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

Pinned: The bond market and the climate transition

Join work with SSFC where we argue for and describe the relevance and functionality for bond markets in the climate transition. Non-technical.

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WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

 We discuss the nature of short selling: its dangers, its benefits, after a month of extremely interesting developments in the space. 

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Low carbon credit performance 2015-2020

WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

WallSt Bets, Keynes, BaFin, Fink and climate change shorts

  Low carbon has produced stable excess returns versus traditional  credit - we provide an out-of-sample, apples-for-apples examination  using S&P indices based on the ECOBAR allocation model.  

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How to measure the green bond premium

Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

The Reformed SSA Trader: New Year's Exclusions

 Podcast discussion with Keesa Schreane at Refinitv around green bond premiums and some policy recommendations from our work on green bond volatility.

Listen

The Reformed SSA Trader: New Year's Exclusions

Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

The Reformed SSA Trader: New Year's Exclusions

 With the announcement of the financing of the Vung An II coal  plant, the AFII initiates its SSA exclusion list by putting JBIC and  KEXIM on it, together with a few of AFII's earlier designated SSA  climate destroyers. And we explain what SSA stands for/is. 

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Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

Private equity investment engagement and carbon foot-printing: A real-time case study

 The biggest USD bond funder of potential Carmichael coal lender  State Bank of India has a dominant private equity owner,  top-three firm  Apollo Management. What does this mean for (climate concerned) end  investors in Apollo funds, and/or the PE manager's engagement  opportunity here?  .

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How green bond markets are (not) supposed to work

Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

How green bond markets are (not) supposed to work

 A green bond market where issuers can directly finance what has  been called “the world’s most insane energy project” and still claim  credit for refinancing a dozen of windmills deserves to be questioned.  Could we avoid it? 

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ESG in CDS indices: A practitioner perspective

Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

How green bond markets are (not) supposed to work

We outline the potential usage of CDS indices for ESG focused investing.

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Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

We  suggest an alternative way to get almost identical risk-return exposure  but without lining the pockets of Aramco shareholder(s).

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Technical note: An ECB Rapid Decarbonisation Plan

Technical note: An ECB Rapid Decarbonisation Plan

Your AMs/PMs want to buy new Saudi Aramco bonds? Have them consider alternatives

We suggest a HLE2G framework that could cut back ECB exposure to fosill risks equivalen to 3.5GT of CO2e, by just removing 30 entities from its portfolios and operations.

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Low carbon credit performance, 2020Q3 update

Technical note: An ECB Rapid Decarbonisation Plan

Low carbon credit performance, 2020Q3 update

We review out-of-sample performance of the ECOBAR model in the implementation through S&P Dow Jones Indices. Performance continues to be strong with a five year Sharpe ratio 1.62.

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Green Bunds will trade as twin bonds

Technical note: An ECB Rapid Decarbonisation Plan

Low carbon credit performance, 2020Q3 update

Short comment around how the upcoming Green Bunds (German government bonds) will trade as twins, as discussed in our earlier paper "Green Bond Risk Premiums: A Twin-Bond ULFP Approach". [External link]

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Webinar: Central banks, ESG integration and the future of monetary policy

Webinar: Central banks, ESG integration and the future of monetary policy

Webinar: Central banks, ESG integration and the future of monetary policy

Responsible Investor webinar where we discuss effective climate trades for central bank portfolios.  [External link] 

GARP Sustainability and Climate Risk (SCR) Certificate

Webinar: Central banks, ESG integration and the future of monetary policy

Webinar: Central banks, ESG integration and the future of monetary policy

The paper "Credit alpha and CO2 reduction: A portfolio manager approach" is on the required reading list for this new certificate from the world's largest association of risk professionals.  [External link] 

External links are not endorsements.

Copyright © 2023 Anthropocene Fixed Income Institute. All rights reserved.  

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