Transition credit review: H1 2025

10 minute read

Download full paper (0.3mb)

Our inaugural market review offers a snapshot of credit performance in the first half of the year for fixed income professionals looking to manage the climate performance of their portfolios.

Drawing on AFII’s CO2liseum portfolio tool and Quantitative Transition Assessment (QTA) methodology, the report tracks issuance and performance across the traditional and Green, Sustainable, and Sustainability-Linked (GSS) bond universes and highlights trends in the key transition sectors of Autos and Energy.

Key takeaways from H1 2025 include the volatility of sovereign credit, the tightening of Euro-denominated bond spreads, and the strong performance of green bonds in the Utilities sector. We also highlight clear spread differentials among issuers in the Autos and Energy sectors corresponding to their climate performance, as captured by their QTA scores. 

With yield curves steepening, transition leaders that secured cheap funding before this year are in a stronger position than those that need to refinance against the current macroeconomic context – one characterised by geopolitical tensions and trade conflicts.