Pricing bonds on Australia’s 2035 NDC commitments

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Australia has recently published its 2035 NDC commitments. The levels suggest a fairly fast reduction of domestic GHG emissions is needed for the target to be achieved.

This article prices a transition linker structure based on those targets, using the current ACGB AUD2.75 05/2041 bond as baseline and with multiple step-ups and step-downs, linked to beating stretch targets and accelerating Australia's transition.

The structure could allow Australia to raise debt more cheaply, while providing investors with negative correlation to adverse transition scenarios.